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2002

HIGH SCHOOL WRESTLING

FORECAST

(31st Annual Edition)

Written By:
Brian Brakeman

The High School Wrestling Forecast (commonly referred to as the Brakeman Report) was provided to the The Ohio Wrestling Sport Page (A web site dedicated to Ohio Wrestling, supported by the Wrestling Community in the State of Ohio).

Copyright 2002, Reproduction of this material for profit without written consent is prohibited.

DIVISION I

One of the issues that impact this report is the uncertainty as to what teams will compete at the Toledo Central District and the Perry District.  That’s because the Central District has been divided into three sectionals.  Two of the sectionals will send qualifiers to Toledo Central, while the third, at Westland, will send its top four finishers to Perry.  The problem is that sectional assignments will not be made until after this report is completed.  After discussions with several Columbus coaches I’ve been lead to believe that most of the seeded teams will opt for sectionals that lead to the Toledo Central District.  So, somewhat arbitrarily, I will assume most of the wrestlers – except for Westland and the city teams will head to Toledo Central, while those others will go to Perry.  Undoubtedly, I will be in error on some of these where I look at individual districts, but it will not really impact the overall ratings.

103 #

Projected Champion:  DAVID FEDERICO (WILLOUGHBY SOUTH)

Top Contenders

This is a particularly down year in Division I with substantially less overall talent than I can ever remember.  While there are some excellent wrestlers – Moos, McIntire, Pflug and Pliev – and some deep weight classes – 215# is an outstanding example – there are a number of weak weight classes and many without significant depth.  I thought that might be due to strong senior placement last year, but the numbers for the three classes does not vary that much (52 senior placers in Division I versus 48 in Division II, and 46 in Division III).  Whatever the reason the normally deep bracket sheets we see in Division I are not, in general, present this year.

However, there is good depth at 103# including three state placers, some solid juniors, and two junior high state titlists.  My choice is the excellent junior Dave Federico who finished fourth last year.  Federico, a former junior high state champ, finished 42-5 with both of his state losses to Nino Paglia.  This year he won handily at Brecksville and the Midwest Classic – with wins over Iovine, Brown, and Dearwester.  He is an exceptional defensive wrestler who attacks only in high percentage situations.  I’d like to see him a little more aggressive, but not having trailed this year he has not been called upon to rally from a deficit.

Many of the challenges that Federico will face emanate from the Wilmington District.  In particular, the trio of Mathis, Goode, and Dearwester will test all of their opponents.  State qualifier Mathis got “bombed” twice last year at Columbus, but has rebounded with a vengeance.  He had four falls at the SWOCA, including a final round decking of Goode, and then beat Dearwester to win at St. Xavier.  His only loss was at 112#.  Goode came out of nowhere last year as a freshman after he went 10-10 in the regular season.  He swept to both a sectional and district title and then won three bouts at States to finish 6^th.  His only loss this year was to the aforementioned Mathis, and he won handily at the CIT.  Dearwester is the kind of wrestler you love to watch – an attacking whirlwind coming at his opponents from all angles.  He was 3^rd at Brecksville and 2^nd at St. Xavier.  There is excellent depth at this district and besides those already rated,  watch for Kostoff (Butler), Puckett (Sidney) and Clausing (Miamisburg).

Federico will also face stiff challenges from the Toledo Central District.  Iovine was 5^th last year (with two wins over Goode), and this year was 2^nd at Medina and 3^rd at the Midwest Classic.  Federico beat him badly at the Midwest, but it may not be so easy the next time.  Metcalf was in a strange situation last year at Perrysburg.  Both he and Zychowicz certified at 103# and, somehow, there was unhappiness that Metcalf was forced to move to 112#.  That is likely the reason why Metcalf now wrestles for Anthony Wayne.  At any rate Zychowicz did not get out of the Mentor District at 103#, while Metcalf qualified at 112#.  He won two bouts at Columbus, but now returns to 103# for his senior year.  His only loss so far was to Compton in the Wadsworth final.  Wanner, Hiltner, and Priestas make up a strong trio fighting for the last two berths.

I don’t see a lot at Perry – although, of course, some of the Columbus 103’s could be here rather than at Toledo Central.  Wiley and Anthony could battle for a low place, but will need a very hot weekend to do better than that.  Shackle, only a freshman, was a junior high state champion two years ago, but lost to Mitcheff in that tournament last year.  He was 1^st  at North Canton earlier this year, and with improvement will be a major factor in the future.  The last qualifying berth is up for grabs with Gasser, Rogers, Borchert, and maybe Weinman (Brunswick) in the hunt.

It is an interesting mix of contenders at Mentor.  Federeico has already beaten Brown, 3-0, at the Midwest Classic, but Brown is very strong and solid.  He had a bad weekend at the Powerade, but should be a major factor here.  Light was 3^rd at Medina and 1^st at Mayfield, and this freshman is a strong pinner.  Not only is he good, but the fact that he is blind has, I’ve noticed, taken his opponents out of their normal game plan.  I would not, however, suggest that somehow compensates for his loss of sight.  The freshman Mitcheff and the sophomore Bugara will battle for the last spot.  Hunt, a great free-styler, wrestled at Beachwood as a freshman last year.  Now wrestling for JFK, he could be the first city wrestler in some time to reach Columbus. 

112 #

Projected Champion:  RYAN RIGGS (MASSILLON PERRY)

Top Contender 

The 112 pound weight is generally loaded with state finalists, state placers, and state qualifiers.  Usually underclassmen win at 103#, and, in a natural progression move up a weight class.  In addition, many of the 112’s stay at the weight while some exceptional freshmen jump in, too.  It didn’t happen this year.  The two finalists at 103# last year (LaFollette and Gilsdorf) are indeed at 112#, but both of their schools are Division II this year.  The third place finisher (Paglia) jumped to 125# while the other three placers all stayed at 103#.  Not only that, but every 112# placer moved to a different weight class.  Yes, there are the great freshmen 112’s – Schlatter, Opfer, and Lipp-- but none wrestled in Division I.  So we have, I’m guessing, the extraordinary situation of no returning state placers and just a handful of returning state qualifiers.  It is a weight class, without question, just waiting to be won.

Frankly, I can’t write a persuasive paragraph for anyone winning at this weight.  Riggs has not had the kind of year that I anticipated.  He was 4^th at the very tough Ironman and 3^rd at Medina after getting bombed by the freshman Horne.  However, he did come back at Mayfield and the State Duals – winning both – including a win over Horne.  My view is that he is struggling with the weight.  That means the first couple rounds are perilous for him, and that is an issue that he’ll have to surmount.  It shouldn’t be too much of a problem at the sectional or district level, but will be a real danger at the three-day state meet.  Besides, I expect the entire Perry team to move it up a notch as we head toward tournament time.  Actually, I picked Riggs because Robin Rayfield doesn’t have a son at this weight class.

I’ve been assured that Pickerington will be at the Toledo Central District so the Perry District should not be terrifically difficult.  The one real obstacle is Cika who was 3^rd at Brecksville and went 11-10 with Wornoff before losing in overtime.  The other two qualifiers are likely to be marginal performers at the state level.

At one point I thought Wornoff might be my choice at this class.  After all he defeated state champion LaFollette four times last year (but not this year) and lost an overtime tiebreaker to state finalist Gilsdorf in the quarter-finals.  He opened the year with a title at Edison, but Zychowicz pinned him at Hudson, LaFollette defeated him twice, and I’ve changed my mind.  In fact, Medina champ Madsen may well be the best at the Mentor District.  Again, the two that qualify after this top duo will be suspect at the state level.  Pedro and DeJesus might be slight favorites for the last two spots, but both Kleinman and Ginter have been very good lately.  A wild card here might be the aggressive Armstrong (JFK). 

Zychowicz, too, has been at the top of my many lists.  After a disappointing district result last year he opened the season with big wins at Hudson and Wadsworth, pinning state champ Monsman and Wornoff in the finals.  At Perrysburg, however, he was 2^nd to Kissinger, and I moved Riggs ahead of him.  That may end up being a mistake because clearly he has the talent to win at this weight class.  Horne will be his big challenge at the Toledo Central District.  A state junior high runner-up last year (losing only to Schlatter) he beat Riggs, 14-3, at Medina and finished second to Madsen overall.  He has the ability to beat anyone at this class.  State qualifier Mossor will also be a factor along with a number of good Central District wrestlers – McCreary, Gruneisen, Hauff, and Belcher (Mt. Vernon).  Factor in Dreschel, Russell, McCarthy (Toledo St. John) and Schuller (Toledo Central Catholic) and there’ll be some very competitive bouts.

The two big guns at Wilmington are state qualifiers Watson and Luce.  They both won titles at the giant GMVWA (with Luce winning at 119#), and have been excellent all year.  Last year Watson and Luce were a combined 1-4 at the state meet --that is unlikely to happen this year.  McKee is probably third best here, with SWOCA champ Neal, Pierson, and Shields also potential qualifiers.

119 #

Projected Champion:  MARK MOOS (ST. EDWARD) 

Top Contenders

In last year’s report I singled out Moos as the best junior lightweight in the country, and that was aptly demonstrated by his perfect record against very tough competition.  He won several of the toughest tournaments in the country (Beast of the East, Ironman, Powerade, and Mayfield) and cruised through the state tourney process with only one tough bout (12-8 win over the redoubtable Phillips).  He was one of only two undefeated Division I wrestlers (Magistrelli was the other) as he placed for the third time (4^th – 2^nd – 1^st).  Moos, an early Michigan signee, has not looked as sharp this year.  He’s had several close bouts and lost at the Ironman to Staylor, a Virginia wrestler he had defeated four previous times.  It was a bout in which he was taken down four times.  However, at Medina he beat both Johnstone and Doggett by big scores and then handled two-time Division II State runner-up Zupancic rather easily.  Then came surprising overtime losses to Rizzo and Zupancic, and you wonder whether there are hidden issues.  However, I expect a return to form and the fact that this is a very weak weight class should allow Moos to cruise to his second state title.

However, these losses destroy the aura of invincibility that Moos had built up over the past couple of years.  Now wrestlers, who two months ago believed that they had no chance against him, suddenly have stirrings of hope.  The Mentor District, as far as it’s possible to tell, may be the deepest one.  Passafiume was 3^rd at Brecksville and was undefeated at the State Duals, but was 5^th at Mayfield.  He lost there to Moos, 20-5, and to Johnstone for the second time – both losses by a single point.  State qualifier Felton is very tough.  At Columbus last year he lost to eventual champ LaFollette in overtime and then to Federico.  Bugara has had some solid successes this year, while Oberdove, Ward, and Fluker could get the fourth berth.

Johnstone is the best at Massillon Perry.  He was 3^rd at Medina and Mayfield, losing only to Moos both times – and failed to place at the Ironman, losing both to state runner-up Zupancic, and, you guessed it, Moos.  It’s uncertain who’ll show up at the rest of that district, but as presently constituted the only real challengers would have to come from the Columbus area – people like Davis and, maybe, King or Reiman.  Stellato and Turner are other possibilities with the former winning two district bouts at this weight last year.

Since much of the Columbus area is likely to move to the Toledo Central District, they’ll be a dominant force there.  Moody, Reiman, Dutton and Mills are all better than anyone coming out of the Northwest District.  I’ve listed Gilkerson, McCulloch, and Joseph from that area, but if all the Columbus boys are, indeed, here that trio will struggle to qualify.  Also watch for Perry (Coffman) who’ll be a factor somewhere.

There are a large number of wrestlers at Wilmington, all of whom are of about the same quality.  Unfortunately, I don’t believe that quality, for the most part, is at a state placement level.  Remarkably they keep defeating one another so that it’s difficult to place them in any coherent order.  I think Alban and Subler may be marginally the best, but I’ve listed a number of others who could be factors at the district level.  One wild card is Hlebak, who had a non-descript season last year, but then won the district title at 112#.  Maybe he will do it again.

125 #

Projected Champion:  T. J. ENRIGHT (WESTLAND)

Top Contenders

Sixteen times in the last nineteen years a Northeast District wrestler has won this weight class (only Key, Allen, and Wineberg were the exceptions), but I’m anticipating that it will not happen this year.  As I see it there are four primary contenders (three from the Northeast District), but my top choice is T. J. Enright.

Enright, still only a junior, was 3^rd at 112# two years ago losing only to three-time champ Kyle Ott.  Then last year he was 2^nd losing a close 3-1 bout to Lang.  This year there are no returning State champs at this class and I anticipate him progressing one more step to the top of the awards platform.  However, it won’t be easy.  Enright seems to wrestle more close, low scoring bouts than in the past, leaving him vulnerable to random factors.  As a sophomore he never scored more than five points in any of his four State bouts.  As a freshman he scored at least six points in every bout.  He looked impressive at Medina, defeating Spencer and Vaughn decisively and winning 4-3 over Agozzino in the finale.

Enright will lead the field at Perry.  Next best, but still a step behind, is state qualifier Pniewski.  He upset Agozzino in the first round last year, but then lost two close high-scoring battles.  This year he’s been an impressive winner at Ashland and Brecksville.  Right behind him is the powerful Meissner.  He was a strong 3^rd at the Ironman, losing only in double overtime to Agozzino, and also 3^rd at Wadsworth, losing to Jaggers.  He has state finalist potential on a hot weekend.  Murray, Compton, Cobb, and Wright are all competent performers in this very deep district, and that’s assuming that only Enright comes up from Columbus.

The battle at Mentor should be between Paglia and Agozzino.  Both were 3^rd last year, but perhaps, arrived there from different directions.  Paglia went into the state meet as the undefeated, heavy favorite.  After two easy wins he walked into a LaFollette cradle, and, stunningly, was pinned.  He then won two more crushes to finish 3^rd.  Meaning no disrespect to LaFollette, but in my mind Paglia was easily the best 103-pounder in the state except for a 92 second period on a cold Friday evening.  Agozzino already had 11 losses entering the state meet and quickly fell again in the first round.  Then he ran off five consecutive consolation wins to finish 3^rd.  He was the only first-round loser to place that high in Division I, and one of only two in the entire tourney (Underation was the other).

Both boys have struggled at times this year.  Paglia with the three weight class jump, and, in fact, keeping it to just that level, and Agozzino with a very tough schedule.  In their only head-to-head meeting Paglia won by a point.  Jones and the sophomore, Mathews, are probably next best here, but they’re well behind the top duo.

These two districts should capture most of the places.  The Toledo Central District should be dominated by the invaders from Columbus, given that state qualifiers Brown and Forgy, along with King, McKinney, and Stoltz all head in that direction.  Forgy missed most of the year, while Brown is coming off a shaky state performance.  At any rate I’ve only been able to identify Patnode and Bowman (a former junior high state champ) as possible contenders from the Toledo area, but I’m certain I’m missing someone.

It’s the same old story at Wilmington – a large, closely bunched field with few real standouts.  I’ve rated Sizemore and McCoy as the best of that bunch, but that’s pretty much “by guess and by golly.”  State qualifier Jaynes missed most of last year and he could be a major surprise at this weight.  Another possibility is Spencely, who dropped two weight classes and then won at Fairfield.

130 #

Projected Champion:  RYAN LANG (ST. EDWARD)

Top Contenders

Ryan Lang and C. P. Schlatter are the only wrestlers this year looking to capture a third state title – and both, coincidentally, are only juniors.  One major difference is that Schlatter has lost only once in 2½ years(in overtime), while Lang has 15 losses in that time span.  However, and this is what is important, they have the exact same 8-0 record at state meets.  Lang has an opportunity to become St  Ed’s first four-time champ should he win this year and next, and could become their 5^th three-time champ this year.  Lang won at 103# two years ago and then made a three weight class jump to 125# and won again last year.  He was only the second Division I wrestler since the state tournament’s inception in 1938 to move up three weight classes and repeat as champion (the other was Alan Fried).  This year Lang has lost six times, including in-state defeats by Thompson and Gulosh.  Of the 42 state champs in 2001 Lang had the most losses (seven) and he may go back-to-back with that distinction this year.  From my perspective Lang looks like a small 130-pounder – perhaps a 125-pounder in disguise.  That inordinately impacts him because of his scrambling style where strength and power are critical.  Both Thompson and Gulosh caught him in scrambles and scored heavily.  Two major positives for Lang are his sensational track record during the last six weeks of the season where he seems to peak at exactly the right time, and the lack of much quality competition at this weight.  Most two-time champs heading for a third title are very strong favorites, but that is not the case with Lang.  He will need to be in peak form at tourney time to win again.

Lang’s toughest competition should come from the excellent sophomore Cunningham.  He was 5^th last year at 119#, and has dominated this year.  He won at Darby, Franklin Hts., and Tiffin, with only Wilson giving him any kind of battle.  He’ll likely be at Toledo Central, and should have a relatively restful week there.  I don’t see anyone within a half dozen points of him.  Besides those I’ve listed, other possible qualifiers are Kulich (Reynoldsburg), Strine (Mansfield Madison) and Rahrig (Toledo St. Francis).

Lang, on the other hand, will have a much more difficult district.  In my mind there are five top-notch candidates for four state tickets, and there are several solid dark horses, as well.  State qualifier Lakia is very good, and, for example, lost to Cunningham by a single point last year.  He was dominant at Riverside and Kenston this year, and should be away from Lang at Columbus.  That gives him state finalist potential.  State qualifier White beat Flake in overtime, and finished 2^nd at Brecksville.  He also was 3^rd at Mayfield, losing only to Gulosh. The sophomore, Effner, and the vastly improved Gioella are state quality performers.  Gioella won at the Midwest Classic and Solon, while Effner placed 4^th at Brecksville and Hudson, and 3^rd at the Dies.  In their individual battle Effner won in overtime.  Bottomlee, Cook, Vaughn, and Mohnacky are in a tough district and are long shots to qualify.  They would probably make it at several of the other locations.

State qualifier Flake is clearly the best at Wilmington.  He has the ability, I believe, to wrestle with anyone in this field and be successful.  State runner-up Vondruska nipped him by two points in first round action last year.  He was an easy winner at the SWOCA this year, and was 3^rd at Brecksville after losing in overtime to White.  After him it’s a wide open district field with no one else having a very high probability of state placement.

It’s all very confusing at Perry.  Lancianese is marginally the best, finishing 2^nd at Wadsworth.  But to illustrate the tightness of the field, he beat both Prvonozac and Mottnacky, at the very bottom of my grid, by one point each.  It’s a wide open field with those listed and Lomas (Cloverleaf) and Spellacy (Brunswick) all having roughly equal chances of qualifying.

135 #

Projected Champion:  CHRIS VONDRUSKA (ST. EDWARD)

Top Contenders

Chris Vondruska has to be the Rodney Dangerfield of Ohio wrestling --he just doesn’t get the respect or recognition he deserves.  A surprising 6^th as a sophomore (with 19 losses), he wrestled extremely well at the end of last year winning the tough Mentor District and three tough state bouts (including upset wins over Tepley and Spatola) to finish second only to Pflug.  This year he has been 1^st at Mayfield and 2^nd at the Ironman, Beast of the East, and Medina, losing twice to the incomparable Schlatter.  He has had some huge wins over Martin and Luke (twice) in an excellent senior season.  He always seems to be the underdog, but he knows how to win.  They describe him as being all elbows and knees and sharp edges, and extremely difficult to wrestle.  Whatever it is, he must be considered the favorite at this weight class.

Vondruska is a step above everybody else at Mentor, but it isn’t a giant step.  Pietropinto toyed with going at 130#, but eventually chose to stay at this weight.  He’s been a solid placer at every tourney and does not beat himself.  He lost to Vondruska, 5-2, at Mayfield.  Allen was only 7^th at Brecksville, but has come on strong lately and passed Pietropinto on the strength of a 5-0 win at Mayfield.  The unheralded Cheh was champion at the WRC and has very quietly had an excellent year.  That should be the four qualifiers and since they emerge from different sectionals the pairings should be good.

The sophomore Luke had a fabulous year in 2001.  Wrestling at 112#, he was a state finalist losing to Moos in that final round.  This year he is up four weight classes, and has struggled a bit with all of the adjustments.  He was 4^th at the Ironman in an enormously difficult weight class, and then was 3^rd at Medina, losing to Vondruska.  At Mayfield he beat Allen and crushed Miller before again dropping a decision to Vondruska.  He’ll be away from Vondruska (assuming their both district champs) at Columbus so their next meeting will be for “all the marbles.”  Luke is hoping that old adage “third times the charm” is relevant to wrestling.  His district is far easier than Vondruska’s with only minimal competition facing him.

The powerhouse district is at Wilmington.  Three of the very best 135’s are there and if a Vondruska-Luke state title bout doesn’t take place, it’ll be because of the Cincinnati wrestlers.  Wolf was an impressive 5^th at last year’s state meet, and he is even better now.  Undefeated, he won at the GMVWA and had little trouble until the last round.

Wolery is a smooth, slick wrestler who qualified at 125# last year.  He lost to Lang, 7-2, in the quarter-finals and then after a consolation victory, lost a heartbreaking criteria decision when Zinkan rode him out.  He missed the Brecksville tourney, but was 2^nd at the SWOCA losing in overtime to state placer Seta.  Mason-Straus may be the best of this trio.  A district champ last year where he beat Wolery (in overtime, of course) he did not wrestle to his potential at Columbus.  This year he looks even better with an outstanding combination of swiftness and power.  He was dominant at Brecksville, and his first three minutes are outstanding.  Brewer is my choice for the last spot, but pairings will be critical, since all four of my top choices  emerge from just two sectionals.

There is some depth at ToledoCentral, but none of the strength that we see at the top of the other districts.  Guerra has had an excellent season with wins at Waite and Perrysburg, and a solid 4^th at Medina--where he gave Luke a very good match.  State qualifier Anderson has not been overly impressive at 140#, but should be far better here.  Uhas and Frederickson are both good, while a host of others are just a step behind.

140 #

Projected Champion:  MATT MCINTIRE (LAKOTA WEST)

Top Contenders