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Discussion Topic: Early Season Prognosticating
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on December 5, 2016

As Brian Brakeman would say, this is a "snapshot" in time. Lots more wrestling to go and my summations are by no means meant to reflect more than the wrestling we've seen in the early season.

125: Gilman rises above this field with Suriano emerging as perhaps his biggest challenger. The two next best--potentially--are Piccini and J-Rod. Tiny Dance (hold me closer) has a history of getting beat at NCAA's and will never beat J-Rod if they wrestle again. Look at the ranked guys ahead of J-Rod and they're all pedestrian. In case you can't tell, I really like what I've seen out of Jose. Each competition he looks better.

133: Assuming Nate stays here, it's between him, Clark and Richards at this point. Micic has a lot of experience wrestling Nate and is just a step below. Same for the rising Mizzou frosh Eiderman and perhaps Kaid Brock and Montoya. At this point, the only way I can imagine Nate dropping down to 125 is if J-Rod were to get hurt. Mark Grey appears to be rising from the ashes and could be a big surprise at this weight.

141: Deep weight class but the most consistent performer has been the former St Eds buzzsaw, Dean Heil. He is masterful in virtually every situation and always seems to calmly find his way to victory. Lots of competitors here such as Jack, Cruz, Ashnault and McKenna. But maybe the strongest #2 at the weight is another Ohio guy--Kolodzik. Hayes has the ability to compete with these guys but beating them is different. He's going to have to fight hard to get on the podium in spite of his obvious talent.

149: Retherford is the best pure folkstyler in the country and as close to unbeatable as any one at any weight. There's a trio of vets behind him with strong track records in Sorenson, Collica and Mayes. Micah is a solid 5th best at this point and competitive with the grouping in front of him (sans Zain). After the top five, the whole thing sort of disintegrates with lots of solid/unspectacular talents ready to beat each other up.

157: Last season showed that Nolf is beatable but it took the epically talented Imar to do it. Joe Smith on paper (currently hurt) would seem to be the only guy with the proverbial slugger's chance to pull the upset. There is opportunity for lots of folks at this weight to get on the podium including the rising CMU junior and CKLV finalist, Colin Heffernan, as well as guys like Casey Sparkman...and, yes, even Jake Ryan if he can get straightened out.

165: Meaty weight class. Imar is already a 2x champion and in the midst of one of the truly great careers in D1 history. But he's no longer huge at his weight which means some really tough guys like Isaac Jordan, Daniel Lewis and rising frosh Massa have hope. But here's the thing--Imar is amazing on his feet and great on bottom. You can't beat him without figuring out how to take him down at least a couple times...because he's going to take you down. He's still a prohibitive favorite unless someone can figure out how to score two and ride him into the ground. Nolf couldn't do it so the difficulty of the challenge is obvious.

174: The good news at this weight is that Bo Jordan is the favorite. 2x NCAA 3rd with his only career losses coming to Dieringer and his cousin are top notch credentials for any wrestler in the country. The issue becomes...is he ready for the challenge? We haven't seen him yet this season and the only thing we know is that he has a family and school in addition to wrestling. How do you balance those responsibilities? Crutchmer, Realbuto and the frosh Valencia are probably the next toughest trio with the Okie State wrestler being the most dangerous of the bunch. Crutchmer is physical and lives for big moves. He's scary and could be emerging as the #1 threat.

184: Good news Buck fans. We can stop worrying about Myles Martin repeating because Gabe Dean has been relentless and is clearly ahead of the field in a way one rarely sees. Martin has wrestled well this year but appears to be a tad undersized when up against some of the larger guys at the weight. I certainly think he can beat anyone at the weight not named Gabe Dean but this class runs deep. Nickal has been dominant early but has beaten no one of note. This is a deep and difficult weight and some fine wrestlers will probably not AA. Zavatsky, Dudley, Downey and Brooks are all very tough. Boyd from Okie State is rock solid as well.

197: Strictly a two man contest with Cox the clear front runner and Pfarr an obvious #2. Pfarr destroyed Moore and Haught in Vegas. Moore actually gave him the better battle. The tiny Buckeye (he looks like a 184 when matched up with some of the 197's) has been terrific so far and looks to me as if he is a serious AA candidate.

285: Snyder is an obvious favorite but it's not smart to assume that everything will work out as flawlessly as last season. Snyder was brilliant in going from a World Title to meshing together a brief and satisfying collegiate season culminating in his epic OT victory over Gwiz. Then he won the Olympics. It was too beautiful a run...and now it's over. Snyder really has no challenges for a while and he looked a shade more pedestrian recently in the World Cup. Not a big deal from an international perspective but one has to wonder how mentally sharp can he be for a collegiate season while training for freestyle comp? All this means is that I think Connor Medberry--huge and agile as he is--can be a real tough challenge. Walz would be the next best. Both have the size and talent to pose problems for Snyder simply because the collegiate season means more to them. Do I expect him to win? Yes. But I think there's some level of vulnerability just because it's really hard to win an NCAA title when it's not your pure focus. Even when you're the most talented guy at the weight.

Done running my mouth. Time to try and get some work done.



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Discussion Topic: Early Season Prognosticating
Michael Rodriguez added to this discussion on December 5, 2016

As I look at the 125-pound rankings and reading your views, I'm inclined to agree with you on Rodriguez's AA chances.

I like Kaid Brock a lot at 133.

As much as I'm a fan of Dean Heil and Kolodzik, I think McKenna takes the next step this year and wins the NCAAs. I see the top six or seven as kind of locked in (in a different order). As far as Hayes's chances to All American, I look at him and Ohio prep stars DiCamillo and Ward and a host of others fighting that last spot on the podium.

There's no argument that can be made for anyone other than Retherford. I think Jordan is a 2-6 guy...but I'm leaning toward "2".

I view Nolf as nearly as big a favorite as Retherford...not just because of his obvious talent, but because of the relative weakness of the weight. I know there's been a lot of chatter about Ryan's performance this year. While I see a bit of a "sophomore slump", he's still a serviceable 157 with All American aspirations for 2018 and beyond.

Even with a 2X defending champ with a single college loss on his record, I view this as the most competitive weight class in the NCAAs. Until he loses, Martinez has to be the pick, but I don't' feel super confident about that...which is nuts when you think at what that kid's done in his two-plus years on the mat. Wrestlers with varied skill sets and wrestling styles, seasoned vets like Jordan, new comers like Massa

I think Bo Jordan deserves his #1 ranking, but the group behind him is very good. I wouldn't be shocked at Valencia, Realbuto, Epperly or Crutchmer win, but I feel like Jordan is a step ahead.

Dean has looked excellent, ten points better than anyone at the weight. I see Martin in the 5,6,7 range...but I'm wrong a lot.

I agree completely with your views on 197.

I disagree with your view of 285. As good and big as Connor Medberry is, he is not bigger or better than Adam Coon. If Coon were healthy and wrestling, he'd be (rightfully) ranked #2. Snyder will win...even without his full attention. He's just THAT MUCH better than the rest of the field. Also,there's nothing about what I've seen of him makes me think (come Big Ten and NCAA time) he won't be focused on the task at hand. I think he bonuses his way through NCAAs.



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Discussion Topic: Early Season Prognosticating
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on December 5, 2016

Mike: Love your thoughts and glad you chipped in. I don't know why I worry about Snyder. I felt the same way last year and we saw what happened. Just my nature.



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Discussion Topic: Early Season Prognosticating
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on December 5, 2016

Hank: The only Buckeye that you didn't mention in your analysis was Cody at 165.

Yeah, I know that he is a longshot, and really hasn't earned the right to be considered top 10 or 15. But, I think he has had an admirable start to the season, and considering he is up two weight classes from last year, I was very glad to see him place 8th at CKLV. That could possibly elevate him up to the 18-20 range.

He still has a lot of work to do, but he is only a RSSO and has a lot of time to improve.

Congrats on 8th Place, Cody!



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Discussion Topic: Early Season Prognosticating
Chris Thomas added to this discussion on December 5, 2016

J Rod hasn't beaten any top 10 guys yet so I can't see him as AA candidate yet. Dance has a history of winning close matches so I can't put a whole lot of stock in the results at Vegas. He'll wrestles a tough kid from Mizzou on Thursday that will give us a better gauge on where his at.



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