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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on August 10, 2015
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What I posted last year:
Ohio State scored 56 points this year with 20 graduating. That leaves 36 points coming back.
125 - Nick scored .5 points. I think you could put Nate in no worse than 6th personally. Peters scored 9 this year taking sixth.
+8.5 (I underestimated Nick a little.)
133 - Johnni scored 2.5 points. 5 AAs graduate. I think it is reasonable to project him to 5 points next year.
+2.5 (Johnni was oh so close last year.)
141 - Logan scored 26.5 points this year. I think he will score the same next year.
Even (He missed by half a point. Too much riding against Jack and Port.)
149 - Ian scored 0 points. Hunter should be top 3. If you put him in Ian's spot this year he is in the finals. I will project him with 2nd place points.
+16 (I missed badly here, but injuries are to blame.)
157 - No qualifier, therefore, no points. Let's assume Demas or Micah is R12.
+3 (Demas just couldn’t get a close win.)
165 - No qualifier, therefore, no points. Let's put Bo 3rd to be conservative, behind Dieringer and Sulzer.
+19.5 (Nailed it.)
174 - Martin scored .5 points. It's no secret that he wasn't healthy. A healthy Martin probably gets 1-2 more wins.
+1.5 (Again, he couldn’t get a close win.)
184 - Courts scored 2 points this year. 4 AAs graduate. I'll put him at 8th.
+3.5 (I did project him to AA.)
197 - Hef scored 20 points this year. 4 of those were "unearned" because of med. forfeits. If Snyder is as good as Cox, and there's no reason to believe that he won't be, then he should be a top 4 placer. I'm taking out Hef's bonus.
-4 (I was pretty close here as well.)
285 - Nick scored 6 points, including 2 falls. I'll project him to be the same.
Even (Injuries, once again, derailed my prediction.)
Total = 106.5
This year's winning score = 109.5
With reasonable projections Ohio State is a national title contender next year. With Tomasello, Hunter, Demas and Bo in the lineup this year they would have been national title contenders.
While I understand being conservative in projecting the redshirts and true frosh, we had a true frosh champ, a RS frosh champ, and 11 frosh placers. I think Ohio State breaks 100 next year, and, depending on how Minny and Iowa reload, they may be the only ones.
Oh, and if somehow the Iceman cometh, then the Bucks may beat PSU's score from this year.
***
The Bucks ended up winning the national championship with 102.0 points. Overall I was pretty close, and a 100% healthy Hunter would have put them past my original projection and the PSU score from the year before.
***
What I’m posting for next year:
125 – Nate scored 24.5 points on his way to a National Championship. He had a pin, major and tech fall along the way (4.5 bonus). Nate could match this total or he could finish as low as 4th. I could easily put Nico, Gilman and Garrett (if at 125) above him next year. Let’s assume a 2nd place finish and give him 20 points.
Weight: -4.5 points
Team: -4.5 points
133 – Johnni scored 2.5 team points last year, including 1 bonus point. I projected him to 5 points last year and he fell short. I’m doing it again.
Weight: +2.5 points
Team: -2.0 points
141 – Logan scored 26.0 team points last year. These are going to be tough to replace. Let’s assume Hunter is here and he’s healthy. I think Hunter is a national title contender at this weight, but he could also finish out of AA range again if he suffers an injury. I’m going to put him at 6th to split the difference and give him 11 points. (That’s what Mecate scored this past year).
Weight: -15 points
Team: -17 points
149 – Hunter scored 0 this year. I’m thinking Micah is going to be here. I see him as anywhere from R12 to high AA. I am putting him at 6th as, like all other Jordans, I think he steps up on the big stage. I’ll give him 11 points.
Weight: +11 points
Team: -6 points
157 – Demas scored 1 point last year, losing two close matches to solid competition. I think Jake Ryan ends up here and gets at least 1 win, we’ll say in the consis, which is good enough for .5 points.
Weight: -0.5 points
Team: -6.5 points
165 – Bo Jordan scored 19.5 points and I think he gets an increase next year. He’ll be better in the regular season and get the 2nd seed, leading to a finals appearance. He also picked up 3 falls last year and I think he can match that next year. I’ve got Bo at 22 points.
Weight: +2.5 points
Team: -4 points
174 – Mark Martin had a good tournament, and still only ended up with .5 points. I’m not sure who’s here next season. I’m going with Ryan Harris, and I’m not projecting any points for him.
Weight: -.5 points
Team: -4.5 points
184 – Kenny went on the miracle run and ended up in the semis, scoring 10 team points. The talent is there to be in the finals this year. Is he motivated after getting close, or is he satisfied with being an AA already. I think it’s the former, and he’s a national title contender, but I’m projecting 10 points from him again this year.
Weight: 0 points
Team: -4.5 points
197 – Another big loss as Snyder scored 18 team points and the Olympic RS year takes them all away. I think Martin or Moore end up here. I might give Martin a point or two, but either way, it’s a big loss. I’m going with nothing, just to be a fair prognosticator.
Weight: -18 points
Team: -22.5 points
285 – Tav never got healthy after the Penn State match and lost two close, winnable matches at NCAAs. Either a healthy Tav or a healthy Haines picks up some points here. I’m projecting 2, just because.
Weight: +2 points
Team -20.5 points
I have OSU at 80 points. That is 4 point behind Iowa’s second place score from last year. I think top 5 is a reasonable goal, and, once you get to the big stage, you never know.
#GoBucks
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Bob Preusse added to this discussion on August 10, 2015
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JLJ,
another keen & insightful analysis my good man-- however some wts may be other than u have them which would change points.
another point changer - imo - is Hunter whether he goes 141 or 149 should be healthy by all accounts and will score more than 11. Ohio St will bring him along slowly to ensure he is at full strength. Thus for this and other reasons i'm giving ohio st more than the 80 points u gave them.
...Hunter could be 149 but assume 141 for this drill
...Micah will be 157 and will be good right away.
...whoever comes out of the 174 battle will be pretty good, MYLES (not Mark) Martin, Harris or Williams.
...Mark Martin could be 184. Courts could be 197. Play with that thought.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Curt Heinrichs added to this discussion on August 11, 2015
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Jason,
Great work. It's not even football season and you have me fired up for wrestling.
Like Bob said, I see Myles Martin at 174, Mark Martin at 184, and Kenny at 197. Heavyweight will be interesting as Haines is a big boy and Tav is an experienced, but undersized, heavyweight.
My only point of question is your look at 165 where you said Bo will be better during the regular season. He of the flowing locks only lost one time last year (prior to meeting Dinger) and that was in the Big Ten finals. Hard to improve upon that, but I see your point. Here's hoping Dieringer hits a growth spurt and finds himself at 174 this year.
Great prognostications all around. Very thorough. Let's hope for a healthy Hunter and that JDJ peaks at the right time and finally gets himself to the podium.
Go Bucks!
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on August 11, 2015
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Damn you guys, I'm trying to temper my expectations and project a realistic scenario, and you have me wanting to go back and rewrite this to project another national championship!
I'll try to do a projection for OK State, PSU and Iowa as well. It won't be as detailed and it will have to be when my wife is at work, because she will kill me! ;)
#GoBucks
#WT3
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Chris Shepherd added to this discussion on August 11, 2015
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If Mark Martin was really having that much trouble making 174 I've wondered if it's out of the realm of possibility for it to look like this:
174- Myles
184- Kenny Effin Courts
197- Mark
Whatcha think? Could he pull a Heflin and bump 2 weights? I've heard over and over his cut was pretty substantial. If he's walking around at 210 or so I'd have to believe this is a possibility.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Roe Fox added to this discussion on August 11, 2015
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I'll believe Hunter at 141 when I see it.
Kollin Moore now out of the picture for next year?
Excellent job, Jason!
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Bob Preusse added to this discussion on August 11, 2015
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Quote from Roe Fox's post:
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"I'll believe Hunter at 141 when I see it.
Kollin Moore now out of the picture for next year?
Excellent job, Jason!"
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...Hunter could go either, will be determined soon.
...Kollin Moore stil very much in picture at 197- Courts might go there, but probably stays 184 where he could have a heckuva season. Moore is a tough focused kid with alot of native talent and has more size than others. Would be a challenge for him to compete as true frosh 197 but Moore could be the guy.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on September 30, 2015
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(REVISED) What I’m posting for next year:
125 – Nate scored 24.5 points on his way to a National Championship. He had a pin, major and tech fall along the way (4.5 bonus). Nate could match this total or he could finish as low as 3rd. I could easily put Nico or Gilman (Garrett to 133) above him next year. Projecting a 2nd place finish and giving him 20 points to be reasonable.
Weight: -4.5 points
Team: -4.5 points
133 – Johnni scored 2.5 team points last year, including 1 bonus point. I projected him to 5 points last year and he fell short. I’m doing it again. There isn’t a guy above Johnni in the Flo rankings that he can’t beat or hasn’t beaten. The truth, though, is that there are a number of guys below him that have beaten him as well.
Weight: +2.5 points
Team: -2.0 points
141 – Logan scored 26.0 team points last year. Those are going to be tough to replace. Let’s assume Micah is here and the weight cut is manageable. Micah has a couple wins over Heil, and Heil was an AA last year. I’m going to project Micah to 6th and give him 11 points. I think this is a bit cautious, and wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Micah wrestling on Saturday night.
Weight: -15 points
Team: -17 points
149 – Hunter scored 0 this year. It appears as though he’ll be back here this year. I’m making this pick with the assumption he is 100% healthy come the NCAA tournament. Hunter almost beat Sorenson with 1 arm. With 2 healthy arms and a full gas tank, that might be a major. He will crack Tsirtsis’ defense as well. That leaves Retherford. I’ll give the edge to the guy with the win over Logan…for now. Habat scored 18 points at this weight last year while taking 2nd. That included 2 bonus points. I think Hunter can match that.
Weight: +18 points
Team: +1 point
157 – Demas scored 1 point last year, losing two close matches to solid competition. I think Jake Ryan ends up here. Here is one weight where I’m hoping for the best, but projecting the worst (0-2 or Non-Qualifier).
Weight: -1 point
Team: Even
165 – Bo Jordan scored 19.5 points and I think he gets an increase next year. He’ll be better in the regular season and get the 2nd seed (unless Dieringer goes up), leading to a finals appearance. He also picked up 3 falls last year and I think he can match that next year. I’ve got Bo at 22 points.
Weight: +2.5 points
Team: +2.5 points
174 – Mark Martin had a good tournament, and still only ended up with .5 points. It now looks like Myles Martin will be here. This weight clears out a bit, but is still full of studs. I think Myles can at least match Mark.
Weight: Even
Team: +2.5 points
184 – Kenny went on the miracle run and ended up in the semis, scoring 10 team points. The talent is there to be in the finals this year. Is he motivated after getting close, or is he satisfied with being an AA already? I think it’s the former, and he’s a national title contender, but I’m projecting 10 points from him again this year.
Weight: 0 points
Team: +2.5 points
197 – Another big loss as Snyder scored 18 team points and the Olympic RS year takes them all away. It now looks like Mark Martin ends up here. No idea how Martin will adjust to the new weight. Will he try to use his quickness, and will he have enough strength to finish? I’m going to maintain my no point projection, but I reserve the right to adjust come mid-January.
Weight: -18 points
Team: -15.5 points
285 – Tav never got healthy after the Penn State match and lost two close, winnable matches at NCAAs. Either a healthy Tav or a healthy Haines picks up some points here. Tav scored 6 two years ago. I’m projecting 2, just for gits and shiggles.
Weight: +2 points
Team -13.5 points
I have OSU at 88.5 points. That is now 4 points ahead of Iowa’s second place score from last year. If Nato repeats, JDJ finally hits his stride in March, Micah finishes top 4, the Martins score a combined 5 points and Tav or Haines gets to 5, then you could easily see the Bucks get to 100 again. If Snyder were back, I think OSU would be the favorite.
I’ll try to do something quick for Penn State, Iowa and Okie State when I have time. I love football season, but I can’t wait for wrestling!
#GoBucks
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Jason L. Jackson added to this discussion on September 30, 2015
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A look at the contenders…
125
Iowa – Thomas Gilman is back after a 4th place finish last year. I’m putting him 3rd, behind NaTo and Nico. Gilman scored 15.5 taking 4th (more than Waters got for third). I’ll give him 1 more for 16.5.
Penn State – Nico Megaludis is back after a RS year and I am putting him right into the finals. I will project Nico with 20, same as NaTo, for now.
Okie State – Eddie Klimara is back and is ranked 7th. I think he falls short of that and ends up R12. However, he took 7th last year, scoring 9.5 points, so I’ll project that.
133
Iowa – Cory Clark is back after a runner up finish, and starts the year ranked 2nd. I think he matches his point total from last year with 17.
Penn State – Jordan Conaway is up at this weight this year, and, truthfully, I think he does NOT fair well. He wasn’t a particularly strong or big 125, and I think he gets muscled around this year. He qualifies and scores 2 points.
Okie State – Looking at the OK State roster and…Dean Heil is listed as a 133! He was last year too, so I took him out and I guess I expect true frosh Kaid Brock to get the start. I’ll give him 2 points at nationals.
141
Iowa – I’m not sure who Iowa will have here. I looked at a Hawkeye sight and they said Body Grothus. I remember him having problems with the cut before, so I’m not counting on him for big points here. I’ll give them 1, just because.
Penn State – JDJ nemesis Jimmy Gulibon goes up here, and, once again, I don’t think he’ll be great going up a weight. I think he falls below his lofty preseason ranking, but I will put him in at 8th place. 5.5 points.
Okie State – Dean Heil is back after a somewhat surprising 4th place finish last year. Personally, I think he drops a bit, but I’ll project him the same points as last year - 12.5 points.
149
Iowa – Brandon Sorenson got better as the year went on, and finished 4th at the NCAA tournament. I’ll put him in the same spot this year, with 14.5 points.
Penn State – Zain Retherford is a deserving preseason favorite at this weight. Houdashelt scored 22 last year, so I’ll give Zain that as well.
Okie State – Anthony Collica is here, down from 157 last year. He scored 2 points last year, but I think he could top that at a more natural weight. I’ll give him 5 points.
157
Iowa – Even the Iowa site isn’t sure who goes here for the Hawkeyes. Once again, I’ll give them 1 point just because.
Penn State – Jason Nolf is a guy with some excellent wins in his RS season. He starts the year ranked 7th, but could easily be ranked as high as 4th. Brascetta scored 15.5 for 4th last year and that is a good place to start.
Okie State – Chance Marsteller. The phenom. He begins the season ranked 11th. For a kid that many thought was one of the best high school wrestlers ever, to be ranked behind another freshman is a bit shocking. Marsteller is like Grothus for Iowa at 141. If he handles the weight cut well, he could be an AA. If he doesn’t, well, then he could go 2 and out. I’ll give him 2.5 points, even though I think he’ll struggle mightily.
165
Iowa – Burke Paddock (Ian’s little brother) should be here and I say he’s a qualifier with a win or two. 2 points I guess.
Penn State – Garrett Hammond is the preseason projection, but it could be Shakur Rasheed. I don’t think either is a significant factor. 2 points.
Okie State – Alex Dieringer. Stud. Champ. Scored 25 last year. Looks good again this year.
174
Iowa – Alex Meyer was a stud backup last year and recorded a lot of nice wins. Flo ranks him 5th to start the year. I’ll give him those points (10 – Krutchmer).
Penn State – Bo Nickal is another stud RS frosh for PSU who should outplace his preseason ranking. I’m putting him 6th (9 points last year).
Okie State – Kyle Crutchmer is the preseason favorite and highest ranked returning AA. He came in to the NCAA tourney ranked 12th and went on a heck of a run. I don’t think Crutchmer wins it, so I’ll project him 3rd, good enough for 17.5 points last year.
184
Iowa – Sammy Brooks was very highly ranked last year, and then had a terrible NCAA tourney. I think he places top 5 this year. I’ll give him the 5th place points for now (10 points).
Penn State – Matt McCutcheon was here last year and scored 3.5 points. I’m projecting the same.
Okie State – Nolan Boyd is here again after qualifying and scoring 1 point last year. I think he gets an extra half this year for 1.5 points.
197
Iowa – Nathan Burak is back for what seems like his 10th year. Burak placed 7th last year. I see him moving up to 5th this year, good enough for 10 points.
Penn State – Morgan McIntosh is the preseason favorite, but I think J’Den gets his second this year. I’ll put McIntosh at second, which was 18 points last year.
Okie State – Not sure who will be here. Austin Schafer? Does Rogers bump up? Either way, I see .5 points.
285
Iowa – Sam Stoll takes over for Bobby Telford and I think there is a dropoff. Telford never got over the hump to make the finals, but he was a dependable scorer, both in duals and tourneys. I think Stoll is a R12 type guy. 2 points.
Penn State – Nick Nevills finally hits the mat after a storied high school career. I think Nevills is an immediate AA threat, and I’ll put him at 7th, which got you 6.5 points last year.
Okie State – Austin Marsden will probably be ranked 5th preseason, even though he missed an AA finish last year. I’ll put him at 5th right now, which is 10 points.
Overall
Iowa – I give Iowa 84 points, which, and I swear this is a coincidence, is exactly what they scored last year. Clark and Gilman are givens, 141, 157, Paddock & Stoll are the question marks. The rest are solid, but maybe not spectacular. Could score 100, could score 75.
Penn State – Penn State has 104, which is just over what Ohio State scored last year while winning the title. They are the prohibitive favorite in my mind. Given that I discounted Conaway and Gulibon, they could put it out of reach Friday night or very early Saturday morning.
Okie State – I have Okie State at 86, just above Iowa. They have some guys who could score more than I projected (Collica & Marsteller for sure), but they could also score in the 70s very easily.
I think PSU has to choke a bit, plus someone else wrestling out of their mind, to knock them off this year.
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on September 30, 2015
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JLJ: That was FANTASTIC!!! I am glad you contribute to this site.
Heck yes!
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Bob Preusse added to this discussion on September 30, 2015
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#Dano says Bravo to JLJ, if u ever in Vegas we'll party with my buddies Charlie Sheen & The Biebs
what a guy what an analysis! monumental effort, JLJ TheMan -- a CB for u at Mr Brisket, put on my tab (i know its been a year but i'll be up to settle soon, Hank)
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Discussion Topic: Ohio State 2015-16
Justin Hayes added to this discussion on September 30, 2015
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Quote from Jason L. Jackson's post:
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"I think PSU has to choke a bit, plus someone else wrestling out of their mind, to knock them off this year."
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"In a spectacular twist of sovereignty as unforeseen circumstances played out in late February, the anticipated front running teams faltered going into the NCAAs.
They possessed neither the manpower (injuries, legal woes, and personal struggles) nor firepower (their stars underperformed) to hedge the Ohio State Buckeyes, who maximized every last team point opportunity, working like men whose children were at home starving.
Coach Ryan was overheard exhorting his tribe on Day One, 'When going through Hell... keep marching!' On Day Three, they repeated as NCAA Wrestling Champions."
Let it be written, let it be so. ; )
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