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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Deven Dittrich added to this discussion on July 22, 2015

With the lack of high-profile coaching vacancies this off-season, my mind wandered back to the tumultuous off-season of 2006 when three high-profile openings occurred at nearly the same time. The men who filled those positions- all of whom were accepting their first head coaching jobs at “high-profile” schools (although two were already head coaches at smaller programs)- have had surprisingly similar coaching careers over the past nine seasons...

Coach #1: 113-42-0 record; 7 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 4 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 30 AAs, 8 Champs; 1 Hodge winner.

Coach #2: 163-16-1 record; 9 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 8 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 50 AAs, 9 Champs; 1 Hodge winner.

Coach #3: 126-24-2 record; 9 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 7 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 46 AAs, 11 Champs; 1 Hodge winner.

All three coaches have shown an ability to lock up the top in-state recruits in addition to national superstars. All three have shown an ability to coach both ultra-blue chips and under-the-radar kids. All three have assembled a staff of top assistants. And all three have worked hard to develop their RTC as a top destination for Olympic aspirants.

Looking at just the numbers (I’m leaving out conference and NCAA team championships because that would give too much away), which coach has had the best 9-year run? Which metric was the most important in your analysis and why?



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on July 22, 2015

I would tentatively say that the avg # of AA's per year would be the most important factor as it speaks to high finishes and team success. But if one coach had a lot more champions than the others that would be important as well since champions score the most points in tourney comp. I'd love to know the avg finish of the AA's involved. That would speak to the level of performance of each team's best wrestlers.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on July 22, 2015

On s purely analytical basis, COACH #2 has:
1) The best overall record.
2) Fewest losses.
3) 9/10 - Most NCAA top 10 finishes.
4) 8 - Most Top 5 finishes.
5) 50 - Most AA's.
6) 9 - Most champs.

That's a pretty impressive record for COACH #2, and has has certainly done an excellent job.

What these metrics don't tell us is what shape the relative programs were in at the time of the coaching changes. Who had the hardest job to turn around the program, recruit top-notch champions, and instill a winning attitude into the program.

If I were to guess based on the numbers you gave, I would guess that #2 could be Brands at Iowa, #3 could be Sanderson at Penn State, and #1 could be Tom Ryan at OSU.

I wouldn't be too surprised if one of those was Rob Koll at Cornell?



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on July 22, 2015

Here's the timeline as I recall:
--Buckeyes announce that Russ Hellickson is stepping down and a national search will take place.
--Iowa State pushes out Bobby Douglas and installs Cael Sanderson as head coach in order to prevent Gene Smith from hiring him.
--Iowa fires Zalesky and hires Tom Brands for the same reason.
--Ohio State hires Tom Ryan.

This means that we're not talking about Cael as he was not hired at PSU for three more years. Or maybe Cael's accomplishments at ISU and PSU combined are one of the records we're looking at.

Kevin Dresser was hired at the same time as Brands and Ryan but has not coached any NCAA champs (I don't recall any).

Can't be Rob Koll, John Smith or J. Rob.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Deven Dittrich added to this discussion on July 23, 2015

Quote from Pat Altvater's post:

"On s purely analytical basis, COACH #2 has:
1) The best overall record.
2) Fewest losses.
3) 9/10 - Most NCAA top 10 finishes.
4) 8 - Most Top 5 finishes.
5) 50 - Most AA's.
6) 9 - Most champs.

That's a pretty impressive record for COACH #2, and has has certainly done an excellent job.

What these metrics don't tell us is what shape the relative programs were in at the time of the coaching changes. Who had the hardest job to turn around the program, recruit top-notch champions, and instill a winning attitude into the program.

If I were to guess based on the numbers you gave, I would guess that #2 could be Brands at Iowa, #3 could be Sanderson at Penn State, and #1 could be Tom Ryan at OSU.

I wouldn't be too surprised if one of those was Rob Koll at Cornell?"



Great point, Pat. If I have time today I will try to dig up each program's numbers for the five years (one complete recruiting cycle) to show the condition of the respective programs when each coach took over. I may also try to go back ten years to give a better idea of the history/tradition of the program. As the great, contemporary American poet, Everlast, put it: "...you know where it ends, yo, it usually depends on where you start...."



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on July 23, 2015

Look at the first several years of recruiting by each coach and you'll find some of the differences.

One coach brought a lot of talent to his situation and hit the ground running. The other two struggled initially (to varying degrees) with their recruiting classes.

On paper, coaches 2 and 3 have done noticeably better than coach 1 over the nine year period. They've averaged more AA's per season as well as higher finishes.

All three have won NCAA titles, however. That's what was envisioned for them when they were hired. Pretty remarkable when you think about it.

I'd be curious if any other coaches have coached as many or more NCAA champs than these three over the same nine year period. Rob Koll probably enters the conversation although he's never won a team title. Maybe John Smith? J. Rob?



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on July 23, 2015

Hasn't J. Rob been at Minnesota longer than all of his current wrestlers have been alive?

The following a the list of Hoge award winners since 2002.

2002 Cael Sanderson - 197 Iowa State

2003 Eric Larkin - 149 Arizona State

2004 Emmett Willson - 197 Montana State University - Northern

2005 Steve Mocco[3] - 285 Oklahoma State

2006 Ben Askren - 174 Missouri

2007 Ben Askren - 174 Missouri

2008 Brent Metcalf[4] - 149 Iowa

2009 Jake Herbert[5] - 184 Northwestern

2010 Jayson Ness[6][7] - 133 Minnesota

2011 Jordan Burroughs - 165 Nebraska

2012 David Taylor[8] - 165 Penn State

2013 Kyle Dake [9] - 165 Cornell

2014 David Taylor - 165 Penn State

2015 Logan Stieber - 141 Ohio State

That only leaves the following schools elgible: OSU, PSU, Cornell,Nebraska, Minnesota, NW, Iowa, Mizzou, and OKSU.

Koll has been at Cornell 22 years.
Manning at Nebraska since 2000.
J-Rob at Minny for 29 years.
Smith started at Mizzou in 2008.
Drew Pariano at NW in 2011.
John Smith at OkSU since 1992.

The following 3 coaches all moved into bigger universities coaching positions in 2006:

Tom Brands - IA - 157-15-1 (Coach #2)
Cael Sanderson - ISU, then eventually PSU - 115-20-2 (Coach #3)
Tom Ryan - OSU - 113-42 (Coach #1)



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Britt Malinsky added to this discussion on July 23, 2015

Pat, Brian Smith started at Mizzou in 1998, not 2008. Heck, he even won National Coach of the Year for the Tigers in 2007, when they finished third behind Iowa State (under first-year head coach Cael Sanderson) and J Robinson's Minnesota.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on July 24, 2015

Your right Britt. I saw that when I googled it, I just wrote it down wrong.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Deven Dittrich added to this discussion on July 28, 2015

Based on some of your comments and feedback, I dug up the records of the respective coach's programs for the nine years prior to their arrival. The numbers are a bit skewed, though, and I'll try to explain why for each coach.

Coach #1: 113-42-0 record; 7 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 4 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 30 AAs, 8 Champs; 1 Hodge winner. ***The program he took over had the following stats for the nine years prior to his arrival: 97-83-1; 2 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 1 Top 5 NCAA finish; 17 AAs, 3 champs.

Coach #2: 163-16-1 record; 9 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 8 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 50 AAs, 9 Champs; 1 Hodge winner. ***127-34; 9 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 7 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 45 AAs, 10 champs. (Coach #2 served as an assistant coach at this program for 7 of these 9 years so he took over a program that still had his influence as an assistant coach/recruiter when he arrived.)

Coach #3: 126-24-2 record; 9 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 7 Top 5 NCAA finishes; 46 AAs, 11 Champs; 1 Hodge winner. ***109-60; 4 Top 10 NCAA finishes; 1 Top 5 NCAA finish; 25 AAs, 3 champs. (Coach #3 has been head coach at two different programs over the past nine years so the "prior to arrival" stats combine the two programs- four seasons prior to his "arrival" at the first, five seasons prior to his arrival at the second/current program. Numbers at "first" program may be a bit skewed since he was an assistant coach there for those four seasons.)

I think that looking at the numbers of the programs before these coaches arrivals give a better indication of what each has accomplished. Although Coach #2 has the best numbers, he also took over a program that had the best numbers prior to his arrival. Although Coach #1 does not appear to have results to match Coaches #2 and #3, his program clearly had inferior numbers compared to the other programs. Coach #1 has taken his program further in the nine years as a head coach because his program had the furthest to go.

By now, you guys have figured out that Coach #1 is Tom Ryan, Coach #2 is Tom Brands, and Coach #3 is Cael Sanderson. All three can be polarizing figures amongst the other teams' fanbases, but I wanted to have the numbers show that they are all great coaches whose results are pretty similar. Personally, I think that Tom Ryan has done a tremendous job at Ohio State in a very short amount of time; Tom Brands is the absolutely best choice to lead Iowa and his results have not disappointed; and Cael Sanderson is a great coach- not just a great recruiter- in a great situation at a great program. I don't think that any of these three coaches/programs are going anywhere and they will continue to battle for titles for years to come.

Any thoughts?



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Hank Kornblut added to this discussion on July 28, 2015

The before/after info Deven added gives a great perspective on all the factors that have to be considered when judging a job done by a coach. Thanks to Deven for taking the time to put this together.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on July 28, 2015

I think that Tom has done a great job at OSU, but I remember a period of time about 5 years ago, that it seemed like about with every big recruit he had something go wrong.

I think we had 3 or 4 kids that were 3 or 4-time state champs that all went out about the same time due to major injuries.

Plus there were some kids that had 'questionable' discipline traits (student related or legal matters) that cost the program some promising recruits. - Those combined episodes probably account for about 20 of the dual losses in Tom's time at OSU.

I believe that they now spend a lot more time looking at the student and discipline side of things when they offer recruits, and it has rewarded them with a national championship this year.

In the article that I read a couple of years ago comparing great coaches, they were tough on Brands stating that he had his best years with the previous coaches talent. And that perhaps he wasn't developing his talent as much as inheriting someone else's. - Of course, there shouldn't be any place easier to get great kids to come to for wrestling than Iowa with the great history and heritage that they have had through the Gable years and beyond. And it has always been a passionate wrestling state. I am sure that he hasn't won enough NC's to make his fan base happy!

All three of these guys have been outstanding, but it really makes me appreciate the job that Cael Sanderson had done by rebuilding two universities wrestling programs in that time. He is an amazing, and greatly respected coach.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Mike Stann added to this discussion on July 28, 2015

I found this topic quite interesting. Just for fun I went and looked at freshman AA's that these coaches produced during this period. I hope these are correct as my eyes began to cross going through the old brackets.

Coach 1--8 freshman all americans; 2 champs
Coach 2--4 freshman all americans; 1 champ
Coach 3--5 freshman all americans; 0 champs



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Pat Altvater added to this discussion on July 28, 2015

Quote from Mike Stann's post:

"I found this topic quite interesting. Just for fun I went and looked at freshman AA's that these coaches produced during this period. I hope these are correct as my eyes began to cross going through the old brackets.

Coach 1--8 freshman all americans; 2 champs
Coach 2--4 freshman all americans; 1 champ
Coach 3--5 freshman all americans; 0 champs"



IF I AM A STUD FRESHMAN RECRUIT, I SHOULD CHOOSE COACH 1.



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Discussion Topic: Who is your choice to coach...?
Mike Stann added to this discussion on July 28, 2015

IF I AM A STUD FRESHMAN RECRUIT, I SHOULD CHOOSE COACH 1.[/quote]

I could not have said it better.



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