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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Tommy Rowlands added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Ben,
Some reasons:
-It will be the healthiest Hunter Stieber you have seen year to date. It is conceivable to think that if we had the "healthiest" Hunter Stieber in vs VT (a W instead of an L), Missouri (perhaps a loss instead of getting decked?), Iowa (perhaps he holds his 5-2 lead going into the 3rd), and Lehigh (perhaps he gets the W instead of Languis OT loss), you would be looking at the #1 ranked team in the USA, national dual meet champions. I don't think that's Buckeye colored glasses. I think that its conceivable to think that a guy who had 1 loss 2 years ago and is a 2x AA could be the tipping point in the team's results. nobody has whipped them. They have 2 criteria losses and two 3pt dual losses.
-Big Ten's are in Columbus. The Buckeyes benefit from that, no question.
-Ryan/Rosselli (as well as previous coached Ohio State teams) teams have traditionally performed at their best at NCAA's. Wrestled above their seeds & expectations going in every year.
-I think we need 3 finalists and 7 AA's to win it. When you look at that lineup, we basically need a couple guys (not all) to wrestle a little bit better than they are currently. It's not a tall order, but to be fair, we do have to reverse a trend and wrestle much better than we did last week. i just don't think there is any reason to hit the panic button.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Rex Holman added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Thanks for your insight Tommy!
Mr. Martin-
Respect to Mark. I know it hurts a lot to watch your kid struggle with a situation that basically stacks the deck against them. It is way harder to win. I have wrestled with torn meniscus, way different. Someone will inevitably bring up Dan Gable winning with a torn meniscus. That is fine if your are Dan Gable. I hate weight cutting. It adversely affects performance if overdone. 190 (3% bodyfat)) was basically the cut off weight for me, any deeper cut or any longer of a season and I was toast. I feel for you and respect the sacrifices that Mark has made for the team. It can be extremely painful as you have the whole story and we just see the end result.
Mitch did a nice job describing the end season fatigue. Very real. Mitch lost to Jevon Herman in our last Big Ten dual against Illinois his junior year. It fell within his potential scope of performances as he was sick and run down, but took one for the team in an attempt to win. The thing is his upside on that scope of performance is what mattered at the Big Tens and NCAAs.
The great thing about this team is that everyone has has a scope of performances to date that indicates they are >=Rd of 12. That is a lot of points if they perform.
I have way more confidence that Kyle and Bo will make the finals than I did at the beginning of the season. 125 has been thrown for a loop and I think NaTo could potentially make the finals now whereas I was skeptical of it before. Logan is the closest thing to a lock that you can get. I think 3 of 4 in the finals is very possible. It will have to be a very good session.
Considering JDJ, Hunter, Demas, Martin, Courts and Tav. I like the odds half of them AA. Is it going to happen? maybe. An important consideration is this being largest NCAA point scoring potential of any Buckeye team ever assembled.
More potential equates to more potential for positive results.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Ben Golden added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Great insights, thanks to both of you, Tommy and Rex.
I'm interested in this end-of-season fatigue. It makes sense. Do you think the extra time off (2 weeks until Big Tens, 2 more until NCAAs) is generally enough to rest and heal up and feel a good bit better for the Dance? Or is it more like... if guys are down in the dumps mentally at that point in the season, they are likely to stay there?
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Rex Holman added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Ben-
You answered your own question. It really comes down to whether the wrestler is still hungry to win or has some reservations about their strength, conditioning, health, or season being over. Add in whether the body is conforming to the mindset and you get your answer.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Rex Holman added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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As a general rule for peaking, you shorten up the practices but increase/maintain the intensity. It allows the body to recover but increases focus and energy.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Tommy Rowlands added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Thanks Rex!
I will agree with Mitch/Rex etc that "end of season fatigue" is very real. Emotional---just as much, if not more, than physical. Managing this is important for the athlete and the coach. The athlete needs to stay emotionally invested, so that at the end he is still as hungry and tenacious about his goals that he was in his most peaceful moments of daydreaming about winning the nationals in the fall. This is easy for some guys, some it is not. Countless factors play into this.
The coach as well as the athlete need to manage the physical. It's a balancing act and it is extremely tough to manage.
If the elixir to being at your best in the end were easy, winning the nationals wouldn't be that special.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Quote from Rex Holman's post:
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"...An important consideration is this being largest NCAA point scoring potential of any Buckeye team ever assembled.
..."
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Here is a list of finishes since 2000.
Year (Location)
Team Finish
All-Americans
2000
Outside of Top 10
197: Nick Preston – 5th (Coencidently enough, he defeated fellow Columbus Catholic League wrestler, and current Ohio State coach Ross Thatcher (PSU) 2-1 OT.)
2001
Outside of Top 10
141: Robert Sessley – 7th
285: Tommy Rowlands – 2nd
2002
6th (64.5 points)
141: Robert Sessley – 4th
197: Nick Preston – 3rd (Got hosed on a call against some Sanderson guy from Iowa State in the semis.)
285: Tommy Rowlands – 1st
2003 Kansas City
Outside the Top 10
157: Keaton Anderson – 6th (Wrestled the event on one leg.)
165: John Clark – 6th
285: Tommy Rowlands – 6th (A plague on your house Kevin Hoy.)
2004 St. Louis
3rd Place (77.5 points)
149: Jeff Ratliff – 8th
165: John Clark – 5th
184: Blake Kaplan – 5th
197: J.D. Bergman – 3rd (Lost in the first round, and rolled off seven victories.)
285: Tommy Rowlands – 1st
2005 St. Louis
Outside of Top 10
Only had three NQs, all of whom went 1-2. Enright, Bergman, and Nail.
2006 Oklahoma City
Outside of Top 10
285: Kirk Nail – 8th (I’m pretty sure we scored 5 points this year.)
2007 Auburn Hills, MI
10th (54.5 points)
141: J Jaggers – 7th
149: Lance Palmer – 4th
184: Mike Pucillo – 6th
197: J.D. Bergman – 4th (Lost in the first round. Made it to the conso finals.)
2008 St. Louis
2nd (79 points)
141: J Jaggers – 1st ("Losing wouldn't have healed it.")
149: Lance Palmer – 8th
184: Mike Pucillo – 1st
285: J.D. Bergman – 2nd
2009 St. Louis
2nd (92 points)
133: Reece Humphrey – 2nd
141: J Jaggers – 1st (That makes him a 2x national champion.)
149: Lance Palmer – 4th
184: Mike Pucillo – 2nd
2010 Omaha
8th (62)
125: Nikko Triggas – 8th
133: Reece Humphrey – 3rd
149: Lance Palmer – 2nd (That makes 4 AA finishes for this guy! Tommy’s the other one.)
2011 Philadelphia
Outside Top Ten
165: Colt Sponseller – 4th
2012 St. Louis
5th (68.5 points)
133: Logan Stieber – 1st (I watched this in the in Brian Nicola’s basement with his brother Scott, Chad Garver and Michael Rodriguez. It was EPIC!)
141: Hunter Stieber – 6th
149: Cam Tessari – 4th
174: Nick Heflin – 5th
2013 Des Moines
6th (59.5)
133: Logan Stieber – 1st
141: Hunter Stieber – 3rd
174: Nick Heflin – 5th
2014
6th (57)
141: Logan Stieber – 1st (Looking over this list – this is his 3rd championship. He must be good.)
197: Nick Heflin – 2nd (Great moogally googally!)
2015
Write your ending, gentlemen.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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A repeat-plus of 2008 seems to be what some are calling for.
3 finalists, but instead of one additional AA, we'll need seven.
EDIT: Or of 2009, plus more AAs.
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Last edited by Mark Niemann on February 25, 2015; edited 1 time in total
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Tommy Rowlands added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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I think we got 7 All Americans. To count someone "in" for the finals before they have ever done so is a tall order, but I think we have 7 All Americans. It is enough if we can punch a few through to the finals, which can happen. 7th and 8th place, although a tremendous honor, doesn't score many team points. We can't have 3 of our 7 AA's finish 8th.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Agreed.
I listed Kirk Nails ALL-AMERICAN finish as a team total of 5 points that year. If all other AAs (3 finalists and 4 to 7 AAs) get 8th, that's only 20 to 35 points. Heck - David Taylor and Ed Ruth scored that by the first three rounds!!!
Also, without going outside of themselves and trying something over-the-top, the guys who can score bonus, quite frankly - NEED TO!
With 5 teams all saying the same thing ("We have a legitimate shot to win the title this year."), every point is going to be important.
Either way - I'll be dare!
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Sean Koran added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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While 7AAs with three 8ths may not win the title, I'm not sure how anyone could be disappointed with that performance. I think it would be pretty incredible actually. As Mark's data shows, OSU has had more than 4AAs once in the past 15 years (and probably longer than that without looked at additional records). And they year they did have more it was 5. So 7 would be entirely new heights for the program.
I also agree with Tommy that expecting the freshman to make the finals is also a tall order. Not that it can't be done, but certainly tough to pencil them, in no matter how good.
If, say, OSU finishes as follows at Nationals can we really be too upset by the performance?
125: Nato - 6th
133: JDJ - 8th
141: Logan - 1st
149: Hunter - 8th
157: Demas - R12
165: BOJO - 4th
174: Martin - R12
184: Courts - 8th
197: Snyder - 2nd
285: Tav - R12
Of course I hope they all do better than that (expect Logan, who could not do better), but the truth of the matter is that of all those guys, only two have been an AA before, and one of them has wrestled three matches all year due to injury. So really, for everyone else (with the exception of Snyder who has beaten or been within 1 point of every top guy at the weight with the exception of Cox, who he hasn't wrestled), just earning their first AA will be a huge deal.
I know many seem to expect BOJO to make the finals and I absolutely hope he does. But he hasn't wrestled any of the top 4 guys. The win over Walsh was nice, but was in SV so obviously very tight. His other signature wins are over Moore, who has 7 loses, and two against Massa who really hasn't done much of anything all year. Now, if he rolls through the B1G tournament and beats Isaac plus some combo of Morse, Walsh, Harger, then my expectations may change.
Again, not taking anything away from Bo, it's just that making the finals is HARD. It took Jaggers four years to get there, Lance four years, Bergman five years, Hump four years, Hunter hasn't got there yet, Colt never got there (and took 4 years to even AA), etc.
TL;DR version: I think 7AAs would be awesome, even if there are three 8ths.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Quote from Sean Koran's post:
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"...If, say, OSU finishes as follows at Nationals can we really be too upset by the performance?
125: Nato - 6th
133: JDJ - 8th
141: Logan - 1st
149: Hunter - 8th
157: Demas - R12
165: BOJO - 4th
174: Martin - R12
184: Courts - 8th
197: Snyder - 2nd
285: Tav - R12
..."
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Off with their heads! Death by dismemberment! Tarred...and feathered. Sharpen the guillotine blade, my good sir! How many men are needed for a firing squad!?
I kid; I joke; I jest.
We shall revisit this the day prior to the raising of the NCAA Championship banner.
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Mike Taylor added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Mark,
If I'm not mistaken, Cam's 4th place finish came after he lost his opening round match. Is that correct? If I remember correctly, the story going into the 3rd place final was both guys wrestling for 3rd had lost their opening rounds and went on a run to make it to the 3rd place finals, right?
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Patrick Campbell added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Discussion Topic: Lehigh - 48 Hours Later
Mark Niemann added to this discussion on February 25, 2015
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Quote from Patrick Campbell's post:
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"That is correct."
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He said, "Mark"!
Mr. Taylor...yes. That's correct.
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